Fiscal 4Q 2013 Final Estimates

As of Friday's close of $525.96 AAPL is trading at 10.0 times my forward EPS estimate (7.4x ex-cash). Thanks to the new phones' successful launch and pricing confirming Apple's winning strategy, I'm finally able to revise numbers upwards. Potential guidance for the current quarter (Q1 FY 2014) looks very promising compared to WS consensus.

Detailed estimates:

3mo ending Sep-2013   Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------   -------   ------
Analysts consensus     36,820     7.92
Deagol estimates       38,051     8.66 (902m shares)


3mo ending Dec-2013   Rev($M)   EPS($)   GM(%)
-------------------   -------   ------   -----
Analysts consensus     55,530    13.84
Apple guide lo (e)     57,000    14.25    37.0
Apple guide hi (e)     62,000    16.75    39.0
Deagol estimates       61,841    16.85    39.2 (882m shares)

12m ending Sep-2014   Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------   -------   ------
Analysts consensus    181,880    43.34
Deagol estimates      196,271    52.40 (868m shares)


Valuation (12mo ending on)   EPS($)  Y/Y  10x  Cash* Div   Tot
--------------------------   ------  ---  ---  ----  ---  ----
Trailing        (Sep-2013)    40.03  -9%  400   136   11   548
Fair value      (Sep-2014)    52.40  31%  524   158   13   695
1yr target      (Sep-2015)    58.45  12%  585   195   16   795

* Cash/sh balance net of debt


F4Q13 Revenue breakdown ($M):
Mac        5,430 ( 4,300 × $1,263)
iPod         548 ( 3,700 × $148)
iPhone    21,076 (35,000 × $602)
iPad       5,660 (13,100 × $432)
iT/S/S     4,023
Accssr     1,313

Income statement ($M):
Revenue   38,051
COGS      23,660
GM        14,391
OpEx       3,954
OpInc     10,437
OI&E         200
Pre-tax   10,637
Tax        2,819
NetInc     7,818
Shrs.        902
EPS        $8.66

Ratios:
GM%        37.8%
OpInc%     27.4%
Tax%       26.5%
NetInc%    20.5%