Fiscal 4Q 2014 Final Estimates

As of Friday's close of $97.67, AAPL is trading at a 12.5x multiple on my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (9.6x ex-cash). A strong iPhone launch is providing some upside to my numbers, while iPad/Mac growth trajectory remains flat/moderate as expected (with Mac slightly better than iPad). We'll see in January if the new iPads can boost things a bit. Again, not modeling anything on Apple Watch at least until I have some more visibility, particularly on pricing.

Detailed estimates:

3mo ending Sep-2014   Rev($M)   EPS($)   GM(%)
-------------------   -------   ------   -----
Analysts consensus     39,850     1.31
Apple guide low        37,000     1.12*  37.0
Apple guide high       40,000     1.32*  38.0
Deagol estimates       40,800     1.38   38.5 (5.99b shares)


3mo ending Dec-2014   Rev($M)   EPS($)   GM(%)
-------------------   -------   ------   -----
Analysts consensus     63,520     2.40
Apple guide low (e)    59,000     2.18*  38.0
Apple guide high(e)    63,000     2.46*  39.0
Deagol estimates       64,344     2.55   39.4 (5.95b shares)

*EPS guidance range derived from other figures provided
 by Apple and diluted shares outstanding estimated by me.

12m ending Sep-2015   Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------   -------   ------
Analysts consensus    202,700     7.32
Deagol estimates      204,116     7.79


Valuation (12mo ending on)   EPS($)  Y/Y  10x  Cash* Div  Tot
--------------------------   ------  ---  ---  ----  ---  ---
Trailing        (Sep-2014)     6.39  13%   64    23    2   88
Fair value      (Sep-2015)     7.79  22%   78    25    2  105
1yr target      (Sep-2016)     8.75  12%   87    30    2  120

* Cash/share balance net of long-term debt


F4Q14 Revenue breakdown (millions, except ASP):
iPhone    23,315 (40.0 × $583)
iPad       5,433 (12.5 × $435)
Mac        6,071 (4.95 × $1,226)
Other      5,981

Income statement (millions, except EPS):
Revenue   40,800
COGS      25,110
GM        15,690
OpEx       4,814
OpInc     10,876
OI&E         287
Pre-tax   11,164
Tax        2,914
NetInc     8,250
Shrs.      5,988
EPS       $ 1.38

Ratios:
GM%        38.5%
OpInc%     26.7%
Tax%       26.1%
NetInc%    20.2%