Fiscal 4Q 2016 Final Estimates

As of today's market open of $117.35, AAPL is trading at a 12.6x multiple on my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (9.3x when excluding next-12m net cash and div).

Upped FY 2017 due to better than expected response to Plus cameras and Jet Black finish, as well as even more switchers defecting from Samsung than normal. Intrigued about Watch strategy, and hope sales figures get revealed at some point next year. Also curious about what kind of repatriation tax deal is almost assured next year, as "signaled" by Tim Cook.

The stock is approaching fair valuation but current one-year target has significant upside due to FY 2018 growth potential from iPhone, Watch, and Services, and cash repatriation/capital return options (all factors modeled rather conservatively for now).


Detailed estimates:

3mo ending Sep-2016  Rev($M)  GM(%)  EPS($)
-------------------  -------  -----  ------
Analysts consensus    46,800      -   1.65
Apple guide low       45,500   37.5   1.56*
Apple guide high      47,500   38.0   1.71*
My estimates          47,522   38.2   1.71 (5.39b shares)

3mo ending Dec-2016  Rev($M)  GM(%)   EPS($)
-------------------  -------  -----   ------
Analysts consensus    74,230      -    3.17
Apple guide low (e)   72,500   38.0    3.02*
Apple guide high(e)   75,500   39.0    3.31*
My estimates          75,511   39.0    3.30 (5.29b shares)

*EPS guidance ranges derived from other figures provided
 by Apple and diluted shares outstanding estimated by me

12m ending Sep-2017  Rev($M)  EPS($)
-------------------  -------  ------
Analysts consensus   225,120   8.96
My estimates         226,952   9.31


Valuation (fwd-12mo from)  EPS($)   Y/Y  10x  Cash*  Div  Tot
-------------------------  ------  ----  ---  ----  ----  ---
Trailing       (Oct-2015)    8.32  -10%   83    27  2.18  112
Fair value     (Oct-2016)    9.31   12%   93    29  2.36  124
1yr target     (Oct-2017)    9.93    7%   99    34  2.50  136

* Cash per share balance net of long-term debt

(click to enlarge)

F4Q16 Revenue breakdown:
iPhone    28,652 (46.0 × $623)
iPad       4,522 ( 9.5 × $476)
Mac        6,063 ( 5.0 × $1,213)
Services   6,130
Other      2,155 ( 2.0 × $349 = 698 Watch)

Income statement:
Revenue   47,522
COGS     (29,379)
GM        18,143  38.2%

OpEx     ( 6,102)
OpInc     12,041  25.3%

OIE          352
Pre-tax   12,394

Tax       (3,160) 25.5%
NetInc     9,233  19.4%

Shares     5,392
EPS        $1.71

(amounts in millions except $ASP, $EPS, and ratios%)