Fiscal 3Q 2022 Final Estimates

As of Friday's closing price of $154.09, AAPL trades at a 21.9x multiple on my NTM EPS estimate (21.3x when excluding NTM net cash and dividends).

Trimmed revenue projection by 2-3%, partially offset by slightly more patient opex intensity, still results in long-term EPS growth trajectory holding up at high single-digits, so the 24x projected valuation remains valid, even conservative. The recent market price dip to low-20s multiple offers the now rare opportunity of an average quarterly price below my "fair" (or forward) valuation level (thus the blue dashed line in the chart below), something which used to be the case at all times from late 2008 to early 2017 but has only happened once (Jan-Feb 2019) in the last 5 years. Even after a 20% rebound from recent lows, this still seems an exceptional opportunity for long-term investors. As always, I could be wrong, so do your own due diligence and decide according to your particular risk-tolerance profile.

Detailed estimates:

3mo ending Jun22  Rev$B   GM%  $EPS
----------------  -----  ----  ----
Analysts consens   82.6     -  1.16
My estimates       83.9  43.4  1.22 (16.31b shares)


3mo ending Sep22  Rev$B   GM%  $EPS
----------------  -----  ----  ----
Analysts consens   89.9     -  1.32
Apple gde lo (e)   87.0  42.5  1.25*
Apple gde hi (e)   92.0  43.5  1.40*
My estimates       92.2  43.4  1.42 (16.18b shares)

*EPS guidance ranges derived from other figures provided
 by Apple and diluted shares outstanding estimated by me


12m ending Sep23  Rev$B  $EPS
----------------  -----  ----
Analysts consens  414.8  6.51
My estimates      434.1  7.17


Valuation
Timeframe  NTMfrom  $EPS  Y/Y  Mult  Val   $*   Div  Tot
---------  -------  ----  ---  ----  ---  ---  ----  ---
Trail Val  Jul2021  6.08  19%  20.8  126  3.9  0.89  131
Frwrd Val  Jul2022  7.04  16%  22.9  161  3.5  0.94  166
1y Target  Jul2023  7.60   8%  23.7  180  2.6  1.03  184
2y Value!  Jul2024  8.35  10%  23.9  200  1.8  1.15  203

*Cash per share balance net of debt and commercial paper

(click to enlarge)



F3Q22 Statements of Operations

Revenues   F3Q22e    F3Q21   Y/Y%
--------  -------  -------  -----
iPhone     37,932   39,570   -4.1
Mac         9,123    8,235   10.8
iPad        7,454    7,368    1.2
W/H/A       9,280    8,775    5.8
--------  -------  -------  -----
Products   63,788   63,948   -0.3
Services   20,114   17,486   15.0
--------  -------  -------  -----
Tot Revs   83,902   81,434    3.0

Gross Margin Breakdown
--------  -------  -------  -----
Products   21,932   23,049   -4.8
Services   14,478   12,206   18.6
--------  -------  -------  -----
Tot GM     36,411   35,255    3.3
--------  -------  -------  -----
Prod GM%    34.4%    36.0%   -1.7
Svcs GM%    72.0%    69.8%    2.2
--------  -------  -------  -----
Tot GM%     43.4%    43.3%    0.1

Op Expns   12,752   11,129   14.6
--------  -------  -------  -----
OpIncome   23,658   24,126   -1.9
Op Mrgn%    28.2%    29.6%   -1.4

OIE           115      243  -52.7
--------  -------  -------  -----
Pre-Tax    23,773   24,369   -2.4

Tax Rate    16.0%    10.8%    5.2
Tax Prov    3,804    2,625   44.9
--------  -------  -------  -----
Net Incm   19,969   21,744   -8.2
Net Mrg%    23.8%    26.7%   -2.9

Dil Shrs   16,311   16,782   -2.8
--------  -------  -------  -----
EPS         $1.22    $1.30   -5.5

Amounts in millions except EPS in dollars and ratios in %