As of today's market close of $123.28, AAPL now trades at a 11.7x multiple on my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (8.7x excluding next-12m cash and div).
Apple better start guiding a bit more realistically or analysts will start adding 10% to top of range from the outset no matter what. Beating by 5% revenue is ok but going back to Peter Oppenheimer's 15% (and 30% EPS) average sand-bagging is dangerous. (Game of guidance chicken as Mav likes to say. Hey Mav!)
Detailed estimates:
3mo ending Jun-2015 Rev($M) GM(%) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ----- ------ Analysts consensus 48,970 1.78 Apple guide low 46,000 38.5 1.57* Apple guide high 48,000 39.5 1.74* Deagol estimates 51,249 40.3 1.95 (5.78b shares) 3mo ending Sep-2015 Rev($M) GM(%) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ----- ------ Analysts consensus 50,990 1.86 Apple guide low (e) 49,000 38.5 1.70* Apple guide high(e) 52,000 39.5 1.92* Deagol estimates 52,801 40.3 1.97 (5.74b shares) *EPS guidance ranges derived from other figures provided by Apple and diluted shares outstanding estimated by me 12m ending Sep-2016 Rev($M) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ------ Analysts consensus 245,420 9.74 Deagol estimates 266,246 11.02
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