Fiscal 4Q '10 actual results vs. estimates

I'll have to fine tune the iPhone and iPad projections. Everything else came in a bit soft, with iPod and iTunes the weakest. On the income statement, I started with a relatively small $219m (1.1%) revenue shortfall, but made it worse at every step (most impact was from guessing GM a bit high) and it widened to $403m (7.4%) shortfall in pretax income. Fortunately this was almost all offset by a much lower tax rate than estimated, resulting in actual EPS only 9 cents short of estimated, or within 2%. Guidance for the current quarter was impressive.

Here's all the details. I've included the combined iPad+iPhone figures to highlight how those two big errors balanced out.

Fiscal 4Q 2010 Final Estimates

Apple now trading at 12.7 times my FY2011 EPS (10.5x after excluding cash)

3mo ending Sep-2010   Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------   -------   ------
Apple guidance         18,000     3.44
Analysts consensus     18,610     3.99
Deagol estimates       20,562     4.73