Showing posts with label computing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label computing. Show all posts

Sunday, January 29, 2012

Apple: The Limits to Growth (Part 1)


‘Rule Forty-two. All persons more than a mile high to leave the court .’
Everybody looked at Alice.

"Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio, Subsistence, increases only in an arithmetical ratio."
–Thomas Malthus

"Evolution is the result of a sequence of replacements."
–Elliot W. Montroll


Over the last 8 years Apple's revenue has grown from $6.6b in calendar 2003 to $128b in calendar 2011, a 19.4x increase, or an annualized compound rate of 45% per year. Most astonishingly, EPS (including some substantial share dilution) has grown from 13 cents in 2003 to a whopping $35.11 in 2011, a 270x increase, or annualized to a compound rate of 101% per year. That's more than the equivalent of doubling every single year for eight years (2^8=256 times).

In light of such an impressive long-term performance, last quarter's 73% and 116% Y/Y growth, in revenue and EPS respectively, may seem like par for the course. Indeed, this is the way many "savvy" yet uninformed investors characterize Apple and AAPL: as a momo growth stock bound to fall off a cliff (so many examples from last year: NFLX, RIMM, FSLR, APKT, SINA, just to name a few) as soon as the scorching growth cools down a bit (and it will sooner or later, that's an undistputable fact).