'Twas An iPad (mini) Christmas Indeed

"I think it’s going to be an iPad Christmas"
–Tim Cook, last conference call.


Over the last 4 months I've been keeping track of these really nice reports from mixpanel breaking down the iPhone and iPad "installed bases" by models over time. Go ahead and have a look, there's plenty of interesting stuff there.

Yes, I realize this is usage data and does not necessarily reflect the real unit share of active devices by model (much less unit sales). For a great primer on the critical differences between all the market share metrics, Charles Arthur's article at The Guardian is a must read (also this).

In any case, usage data are still quite useful as an additional angle on installed base dynamics. I decided to focus on the weekly changes in the reported percent shares rather than the absolute value, since this second order (or first derivative) metric more clearly reveals (at least to me) all the nuanced shifts and bumps in the data, while the absolute share data seem a bit dull. Particularly, I wanted to focus on the recent trends that have developed since the respective launches for the new iPhones (late Sep) and iPads (early Nov) compared to the big bump for the week of Christmas (12/23-12/29) and the apparently more modest post-Christmas trend reset seen up to now. Just from looking at the charts in the mixpanel reports, the trends before and after Christmas for each model's usage seem quite steady and consistent.

Fiscal 1Q 2014 Final Estimates

As of today's close of $546.39 AAPL is trading at 10.2 times my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (7.5x ex-cash). The China Mobile deal allows me to continue to revise upwards, particularly beyond this year which is reflected in continued double-digit annual EPS growth for the next three calendar years. However, I've toned down iPhone margins a bit for FY14.

Detailed estimates:

3mo ending Dec-2013   Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------   -------   ------
Analysts consensus     57,380    14.07
Deagol estimates       59,005    14.92 (895m shares)


3mo ending Mar-2014   Rev($M)   EPS($)   GM(%)
-------------------   -------   ------   -----
Analysts consensus     45,750    10.86
Apple guide lo (e)     47,000    11.45    37.0
Apple guide hi (e)     51,000    13.05    38.0
Deagol estimates       51,585    13.22    37.8 (875m shares)

Fiscal 4Q 2013 Final Estimates

As of Friday's close of $525.96 AAPL is trading at 10.0 times my forward EPS estimate (7.4x ex-cash). Thanks to the new phones' successful launch and pricing confirming Apple's winning strategy, I'm finally able to revise numbers upwards. Potential guidance for the current quarter (Q1 FY 2014) looks very promising compared to WS consensus.

Detailed estimates:

3mo ending Sep-2013   Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------   -------   ------
Analysts consensus     36,820     7.92
Deagol estimates       38,051     8.66 (902m shares)


3mo ending Dec-2013   Rev($M)   EPS($)   GM(%)
-------------------   -------   ------   -----
Analysts consensus     55,530    13.84
Apple guide lo (e)     57,000    14.25    37.0
Apple guide hi (e)     62,000    16.75    39.0
Deagol estimates       61,841    16.85    39.2 (882m shares)

Ridiculous Apple Dramedy

Dramatis Personae

Apple (AP.)

AnalCyst (ANL.)

TechXpert (TEX.)

Markaotic Chorus (MRKT.)

-----

Act 1, Scene 1

Stage: The street, some random web property. Any one of so many indistinguishable articles.

Fiscal 3Q 2013 Final Estimates

At around $424 AAPL is now trading at 9.1x my forward EPS estimate (5.9x ex-cash). These two quarters (June and September) really don't matter, but Apple better beat my revised long-term projections since I've set the bar quite low. I want to start revising numbers upwards from here on, for a change.

3mo ending Jun-2013   Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------   -------   ------
Apple guidance(mid)    34,500     7.13 (derived with 934m diluted shares)
Analysts consensus     35,090     7.31
Deagol estimates       36,186     7.70


3mo ending Sep-2013   Rev($M)   EPS($)
-------------------   -------   ------
Deagol estimates       39,690     9.30
Analysts consensus     37,550     8.08
Apple guide (est.)     37,500     8.62 (derived with 922m diluted shares)