Friday, November 27, 2009

May I take your order, please? Q1 redux

This can be a great way to gauge Black Friday (and Cyber Monday) online sales. Remember I once again rely on crowdsourcing for this aspect of my model. Oh and don’t forget those European Online Store orders are very welcome too.

Just go here and note the date/time and W# of as many orders you wish to share (you can cross out the last 2 or 3 digits).

For those who’d like to run their own analysis, here's the raw data on the last few orders I've received:

Date PST Web # Region Contributor
----- ----- ----- -------- ------------
08/25 04:42 90442 Europe ITalian Pro
09/24 N/A 57279 Asia/Pac benoir
10/24 15:35 91380 Europe JML
11/11 11:38 65748 Americas macross
11/16 N/A 65837 Americas BillH
11/26 18:30 57652 Asia/Pac benoir
11/26 23:10 91799 Europe ITalian Pro
11/27 04:10 57659 Asia/Pac benoir
11/27 07:14 91863 Europe JML
11/27 10:54 66186 Americas justforkix66
11/27 12:20 66207 Americas BillH
11/27 14:09 66232 Americas Pete_y_48
11/27 15:29 66249 Americas daveynb
11/27 19:37 66297 Americas justforkix66
12/02 01:00 66480 Americas fhatta

(keep checking here, as I'm updating these as I get them)

The historical record provides great context for this unique metric. Here’s the whole history of web orders volume per quarter. And here’s last year’s analysis of the daily order rate around Black Friday.



Anonymous said...

I'd love to see more frequent updates & predictions. I check in quite often but there hasn't been much activity lately.

Daniel Tello said...

Sorry anon, I tend not to do much news or rumors and my predictions usually come the week before earnings (next one in mid January).

As for the web orders, they looked really good for the end of November thanks to Black Friday and Cyber Monday, but I haven't received any new number for the last couple of weeks. Hope I get one near the 27th to close the quarter. I'm currently projecting about 4.3M orders.

Thanks for your interest.