None of my estimates include any new product categories, but I do expect a new iPhone in late September and new iPads in November. Since I really doubt the market has decided to fully value Apple's current product lines as I project them (within my theory of 10x fwd EPS plus cash), it's clear that expectations about new categories for this year and next are somewhat baked into the current price. Keep this in mind as we get past the earnings report and rest of the year announcements.
Detailed estimates:
3mo ending Jun-2014 Rev($M) EPS($) GM(%) ------------------- ------- ------ ----- Analysts consensus 37,860 1.22 Apple guide low 36,000 1.13e 37.0 Apple guide high 38,000 1.25e 38.0 Deagol estimates 38,755 1.33 38.7 (5.98b shares) 3mo ending Sep-2014 Rev($M) EPS($) GM(%) ------------------- ------- ------ ----- Analysts consensus 40,650 1.34 Apple guide low (e) 38,000 1.28 37.5 Apple guide high(e) 40,000 1.41 38.5 Deagol estimates 41,763 1.51 38.7 (5.85b shares) 12m ending Sep-2015 Rev($M) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ------ Analysts consensus 195,060 6.93 Deagol estimates 195,224 7.58 Valuation (12mo ending on) EPS($) Y/Y 10x Cash* Div Tot -------------------------- ------ --- --- ---- --- --- Trailing (Jun-2014) 6.25 9% 62 22 2 86 Fair value (Jun-2015) 7.40 19% 74 24 2 100 1yr target (Jun-2016) 7.98 8% 80 29 2 111 * Cash/share balance net of long-term debt F3Q14 Revenue breakdown (millions, except ASPs): Mac 5,238 ( 4.0 × $1,310) iPod 320 ( 2.0 × $160) iPhone 20,707 (35.0 × $592) iPad 6,895 (15.0 × $460) iT/S/S 4,378 Accssr 1,218 Income statement (millions, except EPS): Revenue 38,755 COGS 23,765 GM 14,989 OpEx 4,449 OpInc 10,541 OI&E 234 Pre-tax 10,775 Tax 2,801 NetInc 7,973 Shrs. 5,981 EPS $ 1.33 Ratios: GM% 38.7% OpInc% 27.2% Tax% 26.0% NetInc% 20.6%
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2 comments:
Is the deferred revenue from th past 12 months included in your revenue estimate?
Not sure what you mean, Anon. Deferred revenue gets recognized under different schedules depending on the revenue source, and a lot of it is due to sales which occurred earlier than the last 12 months.
Estimating the precise contribution from any particular period is practically impossible, but the smoothing effect on net reported revenue is quite subtle and gradual, particularly under these days' modest growth rates.
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