As of today's market close of $123.28, AAPL now trades at a 11.7x multiple on my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (8.7x excluding next-12m cash and div).
Apple better start guiding a bit more realistically or analysts will start adding 10% to top of range from the outset no matter what. Beating by 5% revenue is ok but going back to Peter Oppenheimer's 15% (and 30% EPS) average sand-bagging is dangerous. (Game of guidance chicken as Mav likes to say. Hey Mav!)
Detailed estimates:
3mo ending Jun-2015 Rev($M) GM(%) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ----- ------ Analysts consensus 48,970 1.78 Apple guide low 46,000 38.5 1.57* Apple guide high 48,000 39.5 1.74* Deagol estimates 51,249 40.3 1.95 (5.78b shares) 3mo ending Sep-2015 Rev($M) GM(%) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ----- ------ Analysts consensus 50,990 1.86 Apple guide low (e) 49,000 38.5 1.70* Apple guide high(e) 52,000 39.5 1.92* Deagol estimates 52,801 40.3 1.97 (5.74b shares) *EPS guidance ranges derived from other figures provided by Apple and diluted shares outstanding estimated by me 12m ending Sep-2016 Rev($M) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ------ Analysts consensus 245,420 9.74 Deagol estimates 266,246 11.02
Valuation (fwd-12mo from) EPS($) Y/Y 10x Cash* Div Tot -------------------------- ------ --- --- ---- --- --- Trailing (Jun-2014) 8.76 41% 88 26 2 116 Fair value (Jun-2015) 10.50 20% 105 30 2 137 1yr target (Jun-2016) 12.35 18% 124 37 2 163 * Cash/share balance net of long-term debt
(click to enlarge)
F3Q15 Revenue breakdown (millions, except ASP): iPhone 31,925 (51.0 × $626) iPad 4,280 (10.0 × $428) Mac 6,136 (4.95 × $1,240) Services 5,006 Other 3,902 ( 4.0 × $550 = 2,200 Watch) Income statement (millions, except EPS): Revenue 51,249 COGS 30,577 GM 20,672 40.3% OpEx 5,733 OpInc 14,939 29.1% OI&E 357 Pre-tax 15,296 Tax 4,023 26.3% NetInc 11,273 22.0% Shrs. 5,779 EPS $ 1.95
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3 comments:
Thanks.
Daniel, thanks again for your continuing analysis. With respect to your 1-year price target of $163, does your sales forecast include only existing products, or perhaps estimated revenue from unannounced products such as the purported iPad Pro, enhanced Apple TV + media subscriptions and/or an untethered Apple Watch?
Yes to the extent I expect the current product lines will be updated, refreshed, and the growth I've projected must be driven by new innovation. But I don't model untis for those specific new products, or subs revs (for now).
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