Long-term Apple Segmented Revenue Visualizations and Projections

Two years ago I made the rather conservative (but somehow controversial back then) prediction that by this last quarter just ended in September and about to be reported next week, the iPad would have passed the Mac in trailing-twelve-months revenue. That post also included a far-reaching projection into the future for all product lines, as well as some specific estimates for FY2011.

As it turned out, iPad revenue has in fact already exceeded Mac revenue on a trailing-twelve-months basis but by the first quarter (Jan) of this fiscal year (at least I got the year right): for calendar 2011 the iPad logged in revenues of $24.9b while the Mac only managed $23b. Regarding the other specific predictions for FY11, I was slightly high for iPod revenue ($8.0b vs. $7.5b actual), iTunes ($6.5b vs. $6.3b actual), and Software ($3.2b vs. $3.0b actual). I came up way, way short on iPhone ($32.7b vs. $47.1b actual) and iPad ($18.0b vs. $20.4b actual), and a tad short on Mac ($21.0b vs. $21.8b actual) and Peripherals ($2.2b vs. $2.3b actual).

About the very long-term projection (shaded hazy part), a careful study of the chart shows some considerable differences, which I'll leave up to the reader to compare visually. Here's the update now with the FY2013 predictions (click on all charts to enlarge even more):

iPad to exceed Mac revenue in 2012

And no, it's not because I think it'll eat into Mac's growth (average about 25% growth in units, 20% in revenue for the next couple of years). But by Sep 2012 (ttm) iPad would grab the #2 spot as a revenue driver within Apple, behind the iPhone. If we annualize the current quarter's estimate it already exceeds annual iPod revenue, which was the #3 driver up to now (this even after taking into account the December seasonality which benefits the iPod).

Back in early April, before few had any clue how big the iPad would be, I had this very ambitious forecast for it, along with all other Apple product lines. I was way off in underestimating its contribution (as well as iPhone's). Here's an update to that chart: